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                Author’s Note: I have included an article that I found on-line early in the pandemic by Dr. Bromage because it helped me understand how the virus was spread, and the information was the basis for many of our personal decisions about when and how to interact with others during the pandemic.
The Risks - Know Them - Avoid Them
Updated: May 20
This article has been shortened. Graphs were eliminated.
It seems many people are breathing some relief, and I’m not sure why. An epidemic curve has a relatively predictable upslope and once the peak is reached, the back slope can also be predicted. We have robust data from the outbreaks in China and Italy, that shows the backside of the mortality curve declines slowly, with deaths persisting for months. Assuming we have just crested in deaths at 70k, it is possible that we lose another 70,000 people over the next 6 weeks as we come off that peak. That’s what’s going to happen with a lockdown.
As states reopen, and we give the virus more fuel, all bets are off. I understand the reasons for reopening the economy, but I’ve said before, if you don’t solve the biology, the economy won’t recover.
Where are people getting sick?
We know most people get infected in their own home. A household member contracts the virus in the community and brings it into the house where sustained contact between household members leads to infection.
But where are people contracting the infection in the community?
I regularly hear people worrying about grocery stores, bike rides, inconsiderate runners who are not wearing masks...are these places of concern? Well, not really. Let me explain.
In order to get infected you need to get exposed to an infectious dose of the virus; based on infectious dose studies with other coronaviruses, it appears that only small doses may be needed for

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